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IPOs Only in 2027? Debt Competes with M&A? Analysis by Seneca Evercore

Writer's picture: Seneca Evercore | NotíciasSeneca Evercore | Notícias

(Valor Econômico) Daniel Wainstein, partner at the financial boutique, highlights three trends in current transactions.


Maria Luíza Filgueiras


The volume of mergers and acquisitions was weak in the first half of the Brazilian market this year, but bankers are optimistic about the number of new mandates for potential transactions—even though the final deals often turn out differently than initially expected. The typically reserved debt professionals (DCM) are now smiling more than the previously optimistic equity bankers (ECM), even carving out a piece of the M&A market. Analyzing the market's movements, Daniel Wainstein, partner at Seneca Evercore—a firm specializing in M&A, debt, and pre-IPO transactions—points out three trends:


IPOs in 2027

"If I were to bet on when the next IPO window will open, I’d say 2027. There will be no IPOs this year, which is now a consensus even among the most optimistic investment banks. Next year, I don’t see any trigger for improvement or change in the current economic and political scenario. Over the past five years, those who ventured into IPOs in Brazil faced disappointment. It will take more than that to re-engage investors. In 2026, we enter the presidential election race, which historically has been a weak year for IPOs."


Control Sales Becoming Minority Stake Sales

"Many transactions that start as control sales are turning into minority stake sales due to pricing issues, given the gap between buyer and seller expectations and stock market benchmarks. Entrepreneurs, ready to sell since the pandemic, prefer not to inject more capital now. They accept a minority partner who can provide liquidity or capital injection. Private equity funds are doing this a lot: 'Look, I’m paying a good price to be a minority shareholder today. Let’s grow together and sell later at a higher valuation.'”


M&A Competing with Debt

"In the last cycle, we saw companies heading toward IPOs but ending up in bankruptcy without access to fresh capital. Today, we have a strong debt market, with CRI issuances offering 15-year terms, for example. This is the most significant evolution in Brazil’s capital markets in recent years—debt issuances are taking a share previously dominated by banks. When equity is no longer an option, this debt fills the gap, and it’s unrelated to valuation. What competes with M&A today isn’t IPOs but the debt market in capital markets."

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