(Valor Econômico) Nomes internacionais estão em 13 das 20 maiores transações anunciadas neste ano e representam 85% do volume movimentado
By Fernanda Guimarães – From São Paulo
Cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&A) are on the rise again in early 2025. Of the 20 largest transactions announced so far this year, 13 have had foreign buyers or sellers. When looking at the top five deals, all involved international investors.
This trend is evident in financial volumes. According to data collected by the M&A boutique Seneca Evercore, cross-border deals reached R$ 27.4 billion (US$ 4.8 billion) from the beginning of the year until March 17, accounting for 85% of the total volume in the M&A market in 2025—a 166% increase compared to the same period last year. The number of cross-border transactions is the highest since 2021.
Last year, total M&A transactions amounted to R$ 262.2 billion (US$ 46 billion), with 57% being cross-border. In 2023, this share was 71%.
Among the largest deals announced so far is the sale of the Suvinil paint brand by BASF to Sherwin-Williams. This transaction, with foreign players on both sides, is also one of the biggest of the year. Another major deal was the sale of Vast Infraestrutura, owned by Prumo, to China’s CMP.
Another significant transaction, announced last week, was the sale of a minority stake in pharmaceutical company Cimed to Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, GIC.
“This movement is reinforced by the inflow of foreign capital into the Brazilian stock market. In 2025, international investors have accumulated a surplus of more than R$ 10 billion in B3. The consolidation of this trend will largely depend on progress in the country’s fiscal outlook—an essential factor in strengthening investor confidence—along with inflation control, a gradual reduction in interest rates, and expected economic growth,” says Daniel Wainstein, partner at Seneca Evercore. According to him, this increased interest in cross-border transactions is being observed in the firm’s deals.
Even though Brazil is not in the spotlight, deals are happening, and foreign investors are looking for opportunities. Fabio Medeiros, head of investment banking at Morgan Stanley in Brazil, says this year is shaping up to be stronger for cross-border transactions. According to him, foreign investors are actively engaging in M&A discussions, although no new players have entered the market yet—meaning that acquisitions are being made by investors already familiar with Brazil.
One key point, Medeiros notes, is that domestic companies are currently less capitalized, and those with resources are choosing to hold onto their cash due to macroeconomic uncertainties. This has created an imbalance in transactions. “The M&A market is stable, with a stronger bias toward cross-border deals,” says the Morgan Stanley executive.
However, discussions are progressing at a slower pace, says Bruno Amaral, a partner at BTG Pactual responsible for M&A. The reason is that investors are focused on the global geopolitical landscape. “Conversations are evolving, but at a slower pace. This suggests that buyers are taking their time to see how the political situation rebalances,” Amaral explains.
The reality is that interest is not uniform across all assets available for sale. Pedro Muzzi, co-head of M&A for Latin America at Goldman Sachs, points out that foreign investors remain highly interested in assets considered irreplaceable. “For these assets, we’ve seen international players—whether already present in Brazil or not—showing strong interest,” he says.
This means that demand is high for unique assets. Such was the case with the sale of Santos Brasil to CMA and the acquisition of Wilson Sons by Swiss-based shipping group MSC last year. Suvinil also falls into the category of irreplaceable assets, given its strong market presence in the paint sector.
For assets without a clear differentiator, however, foreign investors remain more hesitant, “waiting for a better moment” to invest in Brazil. “We are seeing a lot of dialogue, a significant flow of inquiries, and growing appetite. Foreign investors see this as an entry point into a large economy that remains relevant on a global scale,” says the Goldman Sachs executive.
Diogo Aragão, head of M&A at Bank of America (BofA) in Brazil, also notes that foreign interest in Brazilian assets is not evenly distributed. However, he acknowledges that discussions are taking place in sectors where prices are “misaligned” and where Brazil’s market size is a decisive factor. “But it’s been very case-by-case,” he says.
Since foreign investors have been highly selective, some assets are struggling to find a competitive bidding environment. Muzzi from Goldman Sachs points out that smaller deals often rely on local investors, who remain cautious.
Muzzi believes that Brazil’s 2026 presidential election could start influencing dealmaking toward the end of this year, potentially leading some transactions to pause. As a result, he expects M&A volumes in 2025 to fall below last year’s levels.
On the other hand, Roderick Greenlees, global head of investment banking at Itaú BBA, does not necessarily view the early-year trend—of foreigners either leaving or investing in Brazil—as a definitive shift. He anticipates that the balance between cross-border and domestic deals will even out over the coming months. However, he notes that in sectors such as energy and infrastructure, foreign interest will likely remain high.
At the moment, previously distant investors are once again exploring opportunities. Greenlees highlights a change observed in recent months: a resurgence of Chinese interest, leading to greater participation in ongoing M&A processes. It was Chinese investors—MMG—who purchased Anglo American’s nickel assets in Brazil for R$ 2.9 billion (US$ 500 million).
Thiago Rocha, head of M&A at Santander Brasil, says he has seen an increase in interest from Asian investors across various sectors. He also dismisses the idea of a widespread foreign exit from Brazil, noting that in many cases where international players have sold assets, the buyers were also foreign. “Some cases involve portfolio adjustments,” he explains.
André Moor, head of M&A and equity capital markets at Bradesco BBI, says that investors have been paying closer attention to Brazil since the change in the U.S. government, assessing the potential impacts of geopolitical shifts. “From this perspective, Brazil has a growing economy and a sizable market.”
However, Eduardo Miras, head of investment banking at Citi Brazil, points out that global geopolitical uncertainties have led to market volatility, making asset pricing more challenging. “Even in private transactions, public market prices [from the stock exchange] serve as a benchmark.”
Published in Valor Econômico on 03/25/2025, available at: https://valor.globo.com/financas/noticia/2025/03/24/estrangeiros-dao-as-cartas-nas-fusoes-e-aquisicoes-em-2025.ghtml
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