With the stock market once again in wait-and-see mode, Seneca Evercore aims for a record M&A year in 2026
- Seneca Evercore | Notícias
- Jul 10
- 5 min read
(NeoFeed) After moving roughly R$5 billion in M&As in the first half of the year, Daniel Wainstein's boutique has more than 30 mandates on its desk and sees momentum to surpass its best-ever mark of R$15.5 billion, set in 2023.
On July 1st, after a long process of searching for strategic partners and, later, for buyers, the Brazilian brokerage Warren Investimentos announced the sale of its assets to the Argentine platform Cocos Capital.
The financial terms of the acquisition were not disclosed. But it's certain that the deal added new figures to Seneca Evercore's operation. Founded by Daniel Wainstein, former head of investment banking at Goldman Sachs in Brazil, the boutique, which focuses on M&As, capital markets, and restructurings, advised Warren on the deal.
Two months earlier, Seneca had already worked on the sell side of the transaction that sealed the sale of 40% of FS Bio, a corn ethanol producer, to Amaggi, in a US$1 billion deal. And for the rest of 2026, its projection is to surpass its best marks in this line of business.
"We see the chance of a record M&A year at Seneca," Wainstein, Seneca Evercore's founding partner, told NeoFeed. "We've already done about R$5 billion in the first half, but we understand we'll have much more to announce in the second half."
General data compiled by the boutique shows how the first half of the year played out. Over the period, there were 330 M&As in the country, moving US$30.4 billion (R$157 billion), a 6% drop compared with the financial volume in the same period of 2025, when 420 deals were recorded.
Despite this decline, Seneca's optimistic projections for 2026 rest on the perception that, after a sharp cooldown in the 2025 aggregate, there was a restart of conversations in the first six months of this year. And that this recovery should translate into actual deals in this second half.
The boutique's sense that it can beat its own record, set in 2023, when it advised on M&As totaling R$15.5 billion, is fueled by its pipeline of more than 30 mandates. A good portion of them are on the sell side, with varied ticket sizes.
"There are transactions we could announce worth R$300 million, R$400 million. And others worth R$3 billion. The range is quite wide," Wainstein says. Contrary to 2025, he stresses that the list of sectors in Seneca's pipeline is also more diverse. It includes many potential deals in the financial market, in the areas of asset managers, wealth management, and fintechs, as well as in segments such as technology, alternative energy, education, and services.
For Wainstein, the motivations behind these potential deals are diverse. The main one, in his view, is the appetite of foreign companies looking for Brazilian assets, in a movement he attributes to the country's position in the current geopolitical context.
"China has become an inaccessible market for American companies, for example. And India is a place where there's already been a lot of investment," he says. "So Brazil becomes an interesting destination for foreign companies looking for markets where they can grow."
He also cites sales driven by succession issues and divestments made by companies facing liquidity difficulties in holdings or in non-core businesses. And, on the other side, well-capitalized companies taking advantage of this context for consolidation.
Other factors feed Wainstein's and his peers' optimistic view of a busy M&A agenda in the second half, even in the face of some possible bumps on the calendar. Among them, the level of the benchmark interest rate.
For the Seneca partner, this issue is already priced in by the market and, as long as there's no unexpected spike in the Selic rate, there will be no negative effect on transactions. That's also his outlook regarding the elections.
"We're assuming the scenario where populist rhetoric isn't coming on strong from either side is in place," Wainstein says. "If that holds, I don't see a major impact like we've had in the past, precisely because of the radicalization of the rhetoric."
IPOs going against the grain
That same combination, plus other elements, explains the less optimistic outlook at another window, however: initial public offerings of shares. In May, Compass broke a silence of four years and five months at the B3 bell, raising R$3.2 billion in its IPO.
At the end of 2025, B3 itself fueled expectations by announcing that 54 companies were in line waiting for a window to go public. However, Wainstein doesn't see this as the starting point for a new wave of companies to follow Compass's path.
"I really don't believe in a recovery of the stock market. By the end of the year, it's certain there won't be one," he says. "It depends a lot on the elections and on what agenda the incoming government proposes. Eventually, we could see a cautious opening in the first half of 2027."
For him, the proximity of the elections will bring greater volatility to the market, which in turn will drive away a relevant share of foreign investment, whose flow grew substantially in the first months of 2026 but is already showing signs of cooling.
He also folds into this package issues such as the map of geopolitical conflicts underway around the world, as well as the trajectory of interest rates in the Brazilian market, which continues to favor fixed-income investment. And, at the same time, inhibits share offerings.
"With interest rates at this level, obviously any equity story is much more complex. The valuation of a company planning an IPO carries a very big discount," he says. "And it also works heavily against you that the track record of the last crop of Brazilian IPOs is very bad."
A second alternative
For Wainstein, beyond strengthening M&As as an option, this scenario with no window for IPOs and a high cost of credit has reinforced another alternative for companies seeking sources of financing: debt issuance operations, via fixed-income securities.
Some data from Anbima, centered mostly on these instruments, help paint a picture of how they've been gaining steam. According to the association, the country's capital market accumulated fundraising of R$236.1 billion from January to April this year, up 15.5% over the same period in 2025.
Although debentures represent a relevant slice of the total of 918 operations in the period, with R$119.7 billion raised, there is also greater diversification in the mix. One of the highlights was Credit Rights Investment Funds (FIDCs), which totaled around R$24 billion.
According to Sarah Balestero, capital markets managing partner at Seneca, independent advisory firms, as is the company's case, have been gaining ground and steam thanks to growing demand from companies for financing with longer maturities.
"When a project has a longer cycle, you need to match it with a security that also has a longer profile," Balestero says. "And the capital market has that flexibility to serve this type of operation, whereas banks are more rigid."
Along these lines, Seneca's capital markets division, created two years ago, has already moved more than R$1 billion in 2026, advising on operations such as Beto Carrero World's R$400 million commercial note and a R$250 million real estate receivables certificate (CRI) from FGR Incorporações.
Despite the good momentum recorded so far in this area, Balestero warns of a trend toward a leaner second half, once again, due to uncertainties generated by the period's political calendar.
"The second half is a wildcard. We have both companies already talking about postponing their issuances to 2027 and others planning to bring them forward to now, precisely because the market could shut off the tap," Balestero says.
Faced with this impasse, Wainstein closes with a short, direct piece of "advice": "In this context, the most prudent thing is: if you have demand, do it now."
Published on 07/10/2026 and available at:
Comments