Majority of companies that went public since 2016 are worth less than at IPO
- Seneca Evercore | Notícias
- 2 days ago
- 4 min read
Only 16 of the 72 companies still listed have posted gains relative to their IPO price
Just 5 have outperformed the Ibovespa over the period; investors should evaluate offerings carefully
(Folha de S.Paulo) The current picture of what has happened over the last decade with companies that debuted on the stock market raises some important questions for investors and may be useful in thinking about the next ten years.
Of the 92 companies that carried out initial public offerings (IPOs) on the Brazilian Stock Exchange since 2016, 20 have left the market during that period. Among the 72 companies that remain listed, only 16 have posted positive performance relative to their IPO price as of April 24, and just 5 have outperformed the Ibovespa index over the period.
Within this group, there are companies of varying characteristics and sectors, retail and technology concentrated nearly 35% of IPOs, whose performances are explained by different reasons.
Even so, the figures, drawn from a survey conducted by Seneca Evercore, a financial advisory firm specializing in mergers and acquisitions and capital markets, serve as a useful warning to investors who jump into offerings without carefully evaluating the profile and objectives of the companies seeking to enter the stock market, particularly during periods of euphoria.
This is especially relevant in a market that has seen no transactions for more than four years and is beginning to show signs of its first one soon, despite still appearing far from recovering the momentum seen in 2020 and 2021, a period that concentrated more than 80% of the IPOs from companies that entered the exchange in the last ten years and remain listed.
Last week, Compass Gás e Energia, a company belonging to the Cosan group, announced its plan to list on the exchange, the only one expected by the market at a moment when fears over inflation and high interest rates are intertwined. The final share price is expected to be announced on May 7.
Rodrigo Mello, founding partner of Seneca Evercore, says that having 56 out of a total of 72 companies listed since 2016 whose shares are currently worth less than their IPO price is even more surprising given the strong performance of the exchange in 2026 and the abundance of foreign capital received during the period (more than R$60 billion).
"And that doesn't even account for the fact that the investor could have taken that same money and left it in the CDI. Looking at it that way, the loss is even greater," says Mello.
Mello notes, however, that an investor who decided to participate in an IPO did not necessarily lose money, since they may have sold their shares along the way.
Even so, he emphasizes, it is striking that, out of the universe of 92 companies that debuted on the exchange since 2016 (including those that have since left the market), in only 25% of cases did share performance in the first year after listing come out positive.
The remaining 75% show negative median returns in the first year after the IPO, with a 65% decline among the worst-performing 25%. One year, Mello notes, is a relatively short time horizon for equity investments, which means that, in those cases, the loss was most likely borne by the investor who participated in the offering.
Pedro Moura, equity analyst at asset manager Reach Capital, says that a failed offering is typically the result of a combination of factors: a reversal in the economic cycle, overestimated growth prospects, or investment plans that do not adequately compensate capital.
Among the companies testing the window for market openings, Moura says, there are companies at different stages of maturity, and depending on the business cycle, an IPO may prove ill-timed for that particular moment. "But ex ante it is difficult to make an objective judgment, it is very much case by case," he says.
In order to compare the performance of the 72 companies that have gone public since 2016 and remain listed, the advisory firm also carried out the exercise of calculating the annualized growth rate of each company's shares, dividing them into four groups of 18 companies each.
While Group 1, which contains the stocks with the best annual returns since their respective IPOs through April 24, shows an average annual gain of 7.7%, Group 4, with the worst cumulative performances, records an average annual return of negative 43%.
According to Mello, although the survey covers a ten-year period, in practice, 61 of the listed companies went public five or six years ago. Since then, there has been a large and rapid surge in interest rates, making fixed-income investments nearly unbeatable. The benchmark interest rate entered 2021 at 2% per year, its historic low, reaching 15% in mid-2025, a record in nearly 20 years.
Additionally, he says, high interest rates and lower economic growth, among other factors, caused significant debt burdens among companies that borrowed when rates were lower. "All companies with debt suffer, but the ones listed on the exchange are the ones we can see," says Mello.
Faced with the challenge of making a sound investment, Mello says investors need to be more selective and, given everything they have been through in recent years, set a higher bar, participating only in offerings from companies that truly have a compelling story and are genuinely ready to access the market.
For Moura, of Reach, investors should analyze the premises and motivations behind a company's decision to go public and assess whether the project and the company's valuation make sense given their individual risk appetite. "And, especially, avoid getting in during moments of widespread euphoria."
Published on 05/05/2026 and available at:
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