Large transactions set the tone for acquisitions in 2025

(Valor Econômico) According to banking executives, the trend is for the infrastructure sector, including energy, to remain heated for transactions

Large-scale transactions sustained the volumes of Brazil’s mergers and acquisitions industry in 2025, a year in which high interest rates made the financing of such deals more expensive. Data from consultancy Dealogic show that the announced volume throughout the year, considering figures through mid-December, totaled R$234 billion, broadly in line with the R$231 billion recorded in 2024.

The perception is that in 2026 there will be some increase in volumes, although the electoral calendar has the potential to affect part of the deal flow, especially if there is exchange-rate volatility, something historically typical of the period and a context that can deter foreign investors. The industry reached a peak in 2021, during the pandemic, when it moved R$482 billion.

The head of UBS BB’s investment banking division, Anderson Brito, believes that M&A volume in the country will expand by around 10% in 2026, to roughly US$55 billion, with the share of transactions involving foreign parties, known as cross-border deals, rising from 30% in 2025 to 35%. “There is a lot of interest from European and Asian investors in Brazil”

Among the main transactions of 2025 was J&F’s purchase of the stake in Eldorado previously held by Paper Excellence, bringing an end to a long-standing shareholder dispute. A transaction involving two listed companies was the merger between Marfrig and BRF, which created the giant MBRF. Another large deal involved the acquisition by Iberdrola of the stake held by Previ, the pension fund of Banco do Brasil, in Neoenergia. One of the most significant transactions involved Prio, which completed the purchase of 40% of the Peregrino Field (and Pitangola) operation from Equinor. There was also, later in the year, the sale of Motiva’s airports. The technology sector also stood out with heavyweight transactions, such as the sale of Conta Azul to Visma.

“We had a year in 2025 with greater sector diversification,” says Diogo Aragão

The global head of investment banking at Itaú BBA, Roderick Greenlees, recalls that M&A volumes in the year were also boosted by tender offers that resulted in companies going private, such as Serena’s. The executive points out that the energy sector “will continue to be a relevant contributor to M&A volumes in 2026”.

A survey by M&A boutique Seneca Evercore shows that throughout 2025 the energy and natural resources sector accounted for 52% of total transaction volume, compared with 10% in 2020. According to Seneca’s founding partner, Daniel Wainstein, this represents the highest volume for the segment in 15 years. “We believe that 2026 could be a better year for M&A, with the Selic reaching lower levels, which could boost asset prices,” he says. With higher prices, shareholders may once again consider selling stakes in their companies.

Despite the greater number of transactions in these sectors, which weigh heavily on totals because they are multibillion-real deals, more segments contributed over the course of 2025. “We had a year with more sector diversification,” comments Diogo Aragão, head of M&A at Bank of America in Brazil. He notes that in Brazil the infrastructure sector remains traditionally the most active, given the maturity of the industry. According to the executive, many transactions are being launched and presented to potential buyers with the intention of closing deals at the beginning of 2026. “From April onward, deal flow becomes conditioned by the elections,” he says. The issue, according to him, is that elections historically bring effects on the exchange rate, which is critical for foreign investors’ decision-making.

André Moor, head of investment banking at Bradesco BBI, says the bank entered 2026 with a very robust pipeline and that many transactions “are impermeable to the elections.” The highlights, he stresses, continue to be infrastructure and energy.

The head of M&A at Santander Brasil, Thiago Rocha, believes that this year the election theme will indeed be relevant, but that large transactions continue independently. “2026 may once again be a year supported by large transactions, with a larger average deal size,” he said.

For the head of M&A at Goldman Sachs in Brazil, Pedro Muzzi, M&A volumes this year should be better than in 2025. The executive notes that at the financial institution the pipeline of operations has been growing since September. One market participant expected to once again drive M&A volumes, according to him, is private equity funds, which, without an IPO window for their exits, are likely to opt for selling their stakes. “They need to divest in order to be able to raise new funds,” he says.

Due to volatility, many transactions had to adopt different structures. The head of M&A at BTG Pactual, Alessandro Farkuh, says the year was also marked by more structured transactions, precisely because of the still-uncertain environment. “In moments like this there is a huge reassessment of the most intelligent way to allocate capital,” says Farkuh. “There are many transactions involving capital markets and publicly listed companies,” he adds.

Antonio Coutinho, who leads Citi’s investment banking operations in Brazil, says the environment for mergers and acquisitions became more positive throughout 2025. “The pipeline is still dominated by large infrastructure transactions,” says Coutinho. He points out, on the other hand, that transactions in the energy sector, which stand out every year, lost momentum in 2025, with less participation from renewable energy companies, which are facing challenges due to curtailment, the forced reduction of power generation.

Diego Mendes, co-head of M&A at XP, also expects a more positive year for deals and notes that improved performance of listed shares helps bring buyers’ and sellers’ perceptions of asset values closer together.

Published on 05/01/2025 and available at: https://valor.globo.com/financas/noticia/2026/01/05/grandes-operacoes-deram-o-tom-das-aquisicoes-em-2025.ghtml